Is Bitcoin price going to crash again?

Bitcoinurged to a new all-time high near $110,000 ahead of President Donald Trump’s inauguration speech on Jan. 20. However, the lead cryptocurrency swiftly reversed course after the newly elected US president failed to mention Bitcoin or the broader crypto industry during his address.

While the price remained above $100,000, “Bitcoin top” discussions began to surface between analysts and commentators, but the wider market remained split on overall market expectations. Take, for example, independent market analyst Jacob Canfield, who said,

It’s been a long time since I’ve seen the timeline this divided on whether this is the top or the bottom for a new move.

Crypto investors should be “less greedy, not more”

One X post, which highlighted concerns about a potential market top, came from GCR. The popular crypto trader who famously called the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 in 2022 and publicly opened a multi-million long position on Solana at $16 has a cult following in the crypto community.

After BTC’s correction over the past day, GCR inferred that it had been 750 days since he called the BTC bottom in 2022 and another 250 days since he “advocated” to scale into high-conviction altcoins. With the current market scenario, he added,

“You should be less greedy , not more greedy.”

Likewise, Bluntz Capital, an anonymous crypto analyst, added that people were “underestimating” the likelihood of a market peak as market divergence is beginning to surface across the board.

On the contrary, Reetika, a full-time crypto trader, dismissed the credibility of a BTC top since the crypto asset’s market structure remained intact. Speaking on the intent of calling a market high, the trader said,

“If we start losing market structure we can talk, but right now it seems like you are just hoping to make a bold call on Twitter in the hope of clout.”

With respect to onchain data, Bitcoin’s Pi Cycle Top indicator is yet to peak in the chart. The Pi Cycle top, which is a technical analysis tool, estimates market crypto highs when the 111-day moving average crosses above the 350-day moving average.

As illustrated in the chart, this indicator has predicted the top in the previous three market cycles, and in 2024-2025, the cross-over or top signal has not been triggered yet.

Meanwhile, other optimistic commentators believed that a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve or SBR remained on the US government’s agenda despite no official announcement as of yet. Eric Cryptoman, a crypto proponent, shed light on the bright side of a delayed SBR and said,

“No mention of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve during the speech caused a big sell off, potential generational entries on both chains though as we know it’s coming anyway.”

Bitcoin high time frame remains bullish

On a higher time frame (HTF), Bitcoin’s market structure invalidated the recent inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, which had a bearish target of $74,000.

With the BTC price breaking above $104,000 on Jan. 21, the largest crypto asset has held its fort relatively well after yesterday’s bearish discussions. A critical confirmation might come at the end of this week, with BTC eyeing its largest weekly close above $104,460.

A weekly close above $105,000 will surpass its previous weekly high from December 2024, which will ideally cement the possibility of a new higher high in the coming weeks.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.