How long will Bitcoin’s price consolidation last?

Since breaking above the $90,000 mark for the first time on Nov. 19, Bitcoin’s price has been consolidating within a wide range from $108,268 to $91,000.

Nevertheless, according to technical indicators and political events, Bitcoin’s consolidation may be nearing an end, and the price could be on the verge of a breakout.

Bitcoin price consolidation in its “final stages”

According to crypto analyst Rekt Capital, BTC’s current price action is part of the first Bitcoin price discovery correction that could be nearing its end after achieving a bullish daily close above $91,000 on Jan. 14.

In a Jan. 11 post on X, Rekt Capital said that Bitcoin’s “current 15% price discovery correction has been much shallower by standards of history.” 

Historically, Bitcoin’s price discovery corrections have been between 30% and 35% and have lasted three to four weeks.

“Duration-wise, however, history suggests this current 4-week retrace may be in its final stages.”

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView reveals that buyer congestion around the $90,000 zone saw the bulls push the price from the local lows at $89,100 to produce a daily candlestick close above $91,000 on Jan. 13. 

According to Rekt Capital, reclaiming the support at $91,000 is “important in dictating the next move” Bitcoin price is likely to make.

For independent analyst Trader Tardigrade, Bitcoin’s consolidation could continue for the next few days to achieve the “final capitulation” before a massive upward move.

“Bitcoin experienced a final capitulation at the 27th bar during consolidation in January 2024, just before a massive rebound,” Trader Tardigrade said in a Jan. 13 Bitcoin analysis on X.

If a similar scenario plays out, the final capitulation level is to be reached on Jan. 13 or Jan. 14.

“After that, BTC will surge with a massive rebound.”

BTC price consolidation ending — Bollinger Bands

Meanwhile, anticipation of a breakout in BTC price lingers in the background, as suggested by Bitcoin’s volatility indicator.

Tightening Bollinger Bands conditions on the three-day time frame indicates that the “bottom might be very close,” according to pseudonymous analyst Batman.

“The 3D $BTC Bollinger Bandwidth is at an extremely oversold level, nearing its lower green line,” Batman said in a Jan. 13 post on X. 

The width of the Bollinger Bands, a classic volatility and momentum indicator, is currently tighter than when Bitcoin was at $50K in September 2024. The analyst added that:

“Historically, such lows signal a local bottom.”

The only other two times the three-day Bollinger Bands were this tight recently were in May 2024 and February 2024. 

In September 2024, the BTC/USD pair rose from about $52,500, rallying 101% to an all-time high of $108,268 on Dec. 17, 2024.

The other two times were in May 2024 and February 2024, preceding 30% and 87% rallies in BTC price, respectively.

Bitcoin could soon break out of consolidation if history repeats to stage a massive upward move over the next few days.

BTC price consolidation could end with Trump’s inauguration

Bitcoin investors expect the price to go higher after US President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration, which is slated for Jan. 20. 

The options market has seen renewed action in Bitcoin call options at $100,000 and $120,000 strikes, as per Deribit data. This is a sign that traders are bullish on BTC price after Trump takes office for the second time. 

For example, a trader recently spent around $6 million on Jan. 4 to secure $100,000 in strike call options set to expire on March 28 on Deribit, according to Amberdata.

This means that market participants have strong convictions of the price going even higher, particularly after Trump takes over the US presidency.

As such, the crypto market is paying very close attention to his inauguration. More recently, there are reports that he could issue a flurry of pro-crypto executive orders on his first day back in the White House on Jan. 20.

While on the campaign trail, Trump courted the crypto industry with promises of making the United States the “crypto capital” of the world, promising a possible Bitcoin strategic reserve and enabling a crypto-friendly regulatory environment.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.